biomee
Đăng nhậpTạo trang
← All posts
Articles· October 18, 2026

The 2026–2027 Economy: Tighter Wallets, and Why Affiliate and Social Selling Are Rising

GDP is growing fast, yet fuel, power and food all cost more and shoppers are holding back. This post sums up the 2026–2027 economy with the latest data, and explains why affiliate marketing, social media and new ways of selling make sense for small sellers right now.

In 2026, headlines say Vietnam's economy is growing more than 9%. But at the market, at the petrol station, on the electricity bill or in a Shopee seller dashboard, many people see a different picture: everything costs more, customers buy more slowly, and everyone thinks twice before tapping "Place order".

Both are true. The economy as a whole is still growing, but household budgets and small shops are getting squeezed. This post looks at the latest data (up to mid-October 2026) to answer three questions: where the 2026–2027 economy is hurting, how shoppers are changing, and why affiliate marketing and social media are a sensible path for small sellers right now.

Key Takeaways

  • The IMF expects global growth of just 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025, while global inflation climbs to 4.7% on the back of an oil price shock.
  • Vietnam grew 9.01% in the first nine months of 2026, but September inflation hit 5.08%, fuel prices rose almost 11%, and completed business dissolutions more than doubled.
  • Vietnamese e-commerce is still growing but slowing (19% in H1 2026), and the number of shops making sales fell by about a quarter.
  • In hard times, affiliate and social selling work because they need little capital, carry little risk, and match how shoppers now find products: through videos and reviews from real people.
  • Since 1 July 2026, Vietnamese affiliates and livestream sellers must verify their identity and are accountable for how they present products.

The global economy in 2026–2027: slower growth, higher prices

The world economy is still growing in 2026, but more slowly than last year and at a higher cost. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, compared with 3.5% in 2025 (Fortune/AP, 13 October 2026).

Energy is the main reason. Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since early in the year sent oil prices sharply higher, and the World Bank called it the largest oil market shock on record (World Bank Blogs). The IMF's forecast assumes oil averages about $96 a barrel and global inflation reaches 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

The bigger worry is how uneven growth has become. According to the IMF, just 32 economies account for 95% of global growth, much of it driven by demand for AI chips and equipment. China, the region's largest consumer market, is forecast to grow only 4.5% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025. Put simply: places that build chips are booming, while ordinary consumers almost everywhere are under pressure from fuel, electricity and food prices.

2027 may look a little brighter, but that depends on one assumption: oil and gas shipments through Hormuz getting back to normal. In mid-October, reports of new attacks on ships pushed oil prices up again (Euronews, 14 October 2026). Sellers should plan for prices staying high for a while, rather than waiting for things to sort themselves out.

Vietnam: strong growth, tight wallets

Vietnam is one of the world's fastest-growing economies in 2026, yet households and small businesses still feel squeezed, because living costs are rising fastest in exactly the spending people can't cut. According to the National Statistics Office's release of 3 October 2026, GDP grew 9.01% in the first nine months and 9.95% in Q3, led by manufacturing and exports (NSO, in Vietnamese). The World Bank also raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.4%, with 7.3% for 2027 (VietnamPlus, October 2026).

On the consumer and small-business side, the numbers tell a different story:

Indicator (first 9 months of 2026) Figure What it means for buyers and sellers
September CPI, year on year +5.08% Up from 4.89% in August; the 9-month average of 4.52% is slightly above the ~4.5% target
Fuel prices +10.89% Commuting and delivery both cost more
Housing, electricity, water, building materials +6.68% Fixed monthly bills are heavier
Eating out +7.14% Meals and coffee out cost more
Retail sales, adjusted for prices +7.8% Nominal growth was 13.4%, so nearly half was just higher prices
Completed business dissolutions 48,700 (+118.8%) Twice as many companies closed for good

Source: National Statistics Office release, 3 October 2026; CPI detail via VietnamPlus, 4 October 2026.

Average worker income is still rising, at about 9.1 million VND (roughly $350) a month over nine months, up 9.1%. The problem is that essentials swallow most of that increase: fuel, power, rent, school fees and food. What's left for "nice to have" purchases is shrinking. That's why people say times are hard even while GDP grows.

For small businesses the pressure is sharper still. Each month, an average of 24,900 businesses entered the market and 19,100 left it. Opening a shop, renting space or holding inventory is a much riskier bet now than it was a few years ago.

How are shoppers changing the way they spend?

Shoppers haven't stopped buying, but they buy more slowly, more carefully, and from fewer places. YouNet ECI data shows gross merchandise value (GMV) across Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada and Tiki reached about 264.8 trillion VND (around $10 billion) in H1 2026, up 19% year on year, slower than the 23% growth a year earlier (Mekong ASEAN, in Vietnamese, August 2026). YouNet ECI's director describes e-commerce as entering a stable phase, moving in step with overall retail rather than surging on platform promotions.

Three shifts are worth watching:

Higher prices, fewer units. As early as Q4 2025, the average selling price on these platforms was up 33% year on year while units sold fell 8%. Platform fees went up, sellers passed them on, and shoppers responded by buying less (Vietnam News, 25 February 2026).

Small shops are dropping out. In H1 2026, the number of regular shops making sales fell 27% and Mall stores fell 25%. Revenue concentrated among the sellers who stayed, so average revenue per shop rose. The market isn't shrinking, but competition is fiercer.

Video is taking share. Shopee still leads with 54.5% of GMV, but TikTok Shop has reached 43.4% and grew 27%, far faster than Shopee's 15%. Together they hold almost 98% of the market. Vietnamese shoppers increasingly buy while they watch.

In short, shoppers under pressure don't stop spending. They want to be surer they're spending well, and they look for that certainty in videos, reviews and recommendations from people they trust.

Why does affiliate marketing hold up when the economy is tough?

Affiliate marketing suits hard times because it lowers risk on both sides: brands pay only when a sale happens, and affiliates don't need capital to buy stock.

From the brand and seller side: when ad budgets are cut, paying for impressions is hard to justify. Affiliate is different, because commission is paid only on real purchases. That's why affiliate spending keeps growing even as the economy slows. In the US, eMarketer forecasts affiliate spending will grow 11.4% in 2026 (eMarketer), faster than online retail itself.

From the affiliate side: you don't need a storefront, you don't hold stock, and you don't get stuck with unsold inventory when demand drops. What you invest is time, a good eye for products, and your followers' trust. For many people it's a way to earn extra income when wages lag behind prices, or a stepping stone to running their own business.

But affiliate is also harder in hard times. Cautious shoppers mean "just drop a link and watch the orders roll in" no longer works. What sells now is usefulness: helping viewers pick the right item at the right price, and avoid buying the wrong thing.

Social media is now the store, not just the billboard

For Vietnamese shoppers in 2026, social media is where they discover, compare and buy products, not just where they see ads. TikTok Shop went from an entertainment app to nearly half of the e-commerce market in a few years. Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Zalo (Vietnam's main messaging app) are still where people ask each other "is this any good?" and "where's it cheapest?".

This changes how small sellers compete. You used to need a top spot on a marketplace or a big ad budget to sell. Now, an honest video shot on a phone that clearly shows how a product works can reach thousands of potential buyers. Viewers don't need you to be famous. They need you to be honest.

The catch is that customers are scattered. One finds you on TikTok, another on Facebook, another through a Zalo group. If every channel has its own link and every video points to a single product, you lose a lot of buyers at the "where's the link?" stage.

New selling trends for 2026–2027: five things worth doing

Small sellers who are getting through this period tend to do five things: sell around real needs, bring customers to one place, build trust with reviews, measure which channels convert, and follow the new rules.

1. Sell bundles and solutions, not single items

When money is tight, shoppers like help choosing a complete set: "a skincare routine under 500,000 VND (about $20)", "a week of work outfits", "a tidy desk setup for a small rented room". A video that leads to the whole set saves viewers from hunting for each piece and helps you sell more items in one go.

2. Many channels, one home

Posting in many places is necessary, but every channel should point to the same page. A link-in-bio page brings products, videos, reviews and contact options together. Update a product once and every channel sees the new version. Wherever viewers find you, they know where to go next.

3. Honest reviews over polished ads

In hard times, shoppers fear buying the wrong thing more than missing out. A review that covers pros and cons, compares prices across options, or says "skip this if you…" builds more trust than any amount of praise. That trust is also what brings buyers back next time.

4. Know which channel actually sells

Your time is limited. Instead of posting evenly everywhere, measure which channel really brings people who click to buy. A simple trick is adding a source to your link, such as ?source=tiktok or ?source=facebook, then checking clicks per channel after a few weeks.

5. Follow Vietnam's new rules on livestreaming and affiliate

Vietnam's E-commerce Law, in force since 1 July 2026, sets clearer requirements for online sellers (Tuổi Trẻ, in Vietnamese):

  • Livestream sellers and affiliates must verify their identity electronically before they can operate on a platform.
  • Livestream sellers must not give false or misleading information about a product's use, origin, quality, price or promotions.
  • Affiliates must refuse to promote banned or unlawful goods, and must remove links and referral codes when a violation is found or when authorities ask.

Don't see this only as a burden. As rules tighten, serious affiliates who choose products carefully and disclose their commissions gain a trust advantage over careless ones.

One more thing to watch in 2027: shoppers are starting to ask AI assistants "what should I buy?" before they open a marketplace. In Vietnam this is still early, but it reinforces the same point: clear content with real product information is easier to find, whether people search through social media, search engines or AI.

What should you do in the next six months?

If you sell online or do affiliate work, here are practical steps you can start now:

  1. Re-pick products for your customers' budgets. Favour essentials, fair prices and items that rarely get returned. Pricier items should come with a thorough review.
  2. Bring customers to one page. Put the same link-in-bio page on every channel and group products into sections: by video, by need, by price range.
  3. Publish one honest review a week. Include the downsides. Volume-chasing competitors won't do that.
  4. Measure first, invest second. After a month, keep the channels that bring orders and cut back on the ones that only bring views.
  5. Check compliance. Verify your identity on the affiliate platforms you use, add an affiliate disclosure to your page, and drop products with unclear origins.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the economy be better in 2027 than in 2026?

Current forecasts say yes, but only slightly. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.4% in 2027, and the World Bank expects Vietnam to grow 7.3%. Both assume energy prices ease once shipping through Hormuz returns to normal. If that doesn't happen, high prices may last longer.

Is a downturn a good time to start affiliate marketing?

Yes, if you treat it as real work and not a get-rich-quick scheme. Affiliate needs no capital for stock, so the risk is low. But shoppers are more demanding now, so you need to invest in genuinely useful content and choose products carefully.

What do affiliates in Vietnam need to know about the rules from 1 July 2026?

You need to verify your identity electronically on affiliate platforms, avoid misrepresenting products, and remove links when a product is found to break the rules. Implementing guidance may still change, so check the official legal text or ask a legal professional when you need certainty.

Conclusion: hard times don't stop people buying, they make them buy more carefully

The 2026–2027 economy isn't collapsing, but it isn't easy either. Prices are high, shoppers are cautious, and competition on marketplaces is tougher. In that setting, low-capital ways of selling built on trust and honest content, like affiliate marketing and social selling, have an edge.

The winners of this period won't necessarily be the people who post the most. They'll be the people who help customers choose best, and who make sure customers always know where to find them.

If you want one home for every channel, a place for your products, videos and reviews that also shows which channel brings orders, you can create a bio page on Bio Me in an evening.

Sources (retrieved 18 October 2026)

The 2026–2027 Economy: Tighter Wallets, and Why Affiliate and Social Selling Are Rising · biomee